Day 2 :
Keynote Forum
Alex Ellery
Carleton University, Canada
Keynote: Climate change mitigation at low cost through disruptive technology – Selfreplicating machines to build solar power satellites and space- based solar shields
Biography:
Prof Alex Ellery is a Canada Research Chair in Space Robotics & Space Technology at the Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Department of Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada. He has a BSc in Physics, an MSc in Astronomy and a PhD in Astronautics & Space Engineering from the UK and is a graduate of the International Space University. He was awarded the George Stephenson medal by the IMechE in 2005 and delivered a prize winning paper at the World Energy Congress Istanbul in 2016 His expertise is in the application of robotics and artificial intelligence to space exploration including the exploitation of planetary in-situ resources and the application of 3D printing technology to extraterrestrial material. His goal is to develop this state-of-the-art technology to realise self-replicating machines on the Moon in order to implement innovative global climate change mitigation solutions.
Abstract:
Effects of climate change are increasing year-on-year, yet greenhouse emissions from fossil fuel combustion continue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Furthermore, there is natural inertia in the climatic system that dictates that the full effects of current greenhouse gases have yet to be realized. Renewable energy sources, although growing in their deployment, have capacity limits in an increasingly energy-hungry world, particularly with regard to supplying baseload power. There are thus two aspects to our current geophysiological ailment – aetiology (fossil fuel combustion) and symptoms (temperature). These problems can be solved by implementing: (i) solar power satellites (SPS) to supply solar energy to Earth at 230 W/m2 from space 24 x 7 (antibiotic), and (ii) space solar shields (SSS) emplaced at the Sun-Earth L1 libration point to reduce solar flux to Earth by 1.8% (analgesic). The chief hindrance has been technological capabilities and the astronomical cost imposed by launch from Earth at $20,000/kg. Both problems can be alleviated through self-replication technology, an emerging capability based on robotic machines that can extract raw materials, process it and manufacture it into copies of its own parts. It has been determined that extraction of lunar materials required for building robotic machines is feasible. Furthermore, 3D printing of metals, plastics and ceramics has been developing rapidly. We have been developing technology for 3D printing electric motors and neural network-based circuitry from lunar material as the core components of a self-replicating machine and, indeed, any robot machine. From such universal constructing machines on the Moon, SPS and SSS can be manufactured in vast numbers enabled through self-replication. SPS in conjunction with SSS offer the most effective and robust solution to climate change. The high cost problem may be effectively eliminated in comparison with alternatives through the use of self-replicating machines – such machines are viable and imminent.
Keynote Forum
Don Elzer
Wildcraft Forest School, Canada
Keynote: Wildcraft forest school field studies: Regenerative practices and rewilding amidst a changing consciousness
Biography:
Don Elzer is a community economic development specialist and founder of the Wildcraft Forest School. He is a wildcrafter and field biosemiotician from British Columbia. He is best known for his investigative research and ongoing work with rural communities and First Nations. With over 20 years of field experience working with small and medium sized enterprises and communities he has acquired key knowledge about current development issues impacting our changing planet. As a consultant with the Canadian Tourism Commission he developed one of the first eco-tourism strategies in British Columbia, as well as the first creative sector development strategy in the Okanagan Valley. His role has been assessing, problem-solving and identifying emerging opportunities and leadership methods within such scenarios as industry closures, First Nations self-government, eroding community infrastructure and impacts due to climate change, so that a more creative and diverse economy can be realized and sustained based on stewardship.
Abstract:
Statement of the Problem:
Climate change and certain industrial activities are impacting biodiversity in rural and remote areas. Wild species in “local” ecosystems are transitioning to different locations. A lack of capacity for monitoring leaves these issues un-noticed. Because of the vastness of this problem, governments and institutions are unable to deliver assistance. Most often, people connected to these remote landscapes are observing these changes, but they may not have the organizational capacity to problem-solve. Often these wild edge and riparian areas are within an industrialized farming, logging or plantation interface which is also stressed. Shifts in supply and demand in the resource, food and medicine marketplaces are driving these operations to expand into wildlands placing habitat at risk; at the same time local “food security efforts” compete for these same lands.
Purpose and Methods:
The Wildcraft Forest School has applied experimental research within many fieldworking nodes in an effort to improve capacity for restoration and local problem-solving while establishing long-term working relationships. Methods are also developed that seek to transition certain market demand issues which place dangerous pressures on wild ecosystems and local food and medicine security.
Results and Findings:
A narrative was developed that links educated urban professionals with a “spiritual” connection to ecosystems that includes ethics and stewardship. This incentive framework creates meaning and purpose which drives an individual commitment towards stewardship of a place. The applied fieldwork has helped to transition and support species impacted by climate change and negative industrial impacts as well as to create new regenerative models for the harvesting of wild foods and medicines.
Conclusions:
Participation continues to grow and to be engaged in providing support for restoration and advocacy work that adds capacity to local efforts. The narrative that provides the incentive continues to attract urban professionals who return home and engage with advocacy efforts while utilizing their extension work experience to support career objectives. Opportunities continue to emerge for replicating this model so that it can be applied in other regions and to improve the partnerships with scientific and monitoring agencies.
Keynote Forum
Guy M Robinson
University of Adelaide, Australia
Keynote: Adapting to climate change: Lessons from farmers and peri-urban residents in South Australia
Biography:
Guy M Robinson is a geographer with over forty years of experience in research on environmental management issues. He has worked extensively in the UK, Europe, Australasia and North America on pro-environmental behaviour by farmers and environmentally-friendly actions by householders. With a focus on policy dimensions in this work, he has been editor of the international journal, Land Use Policy, for the last decade. Currently based at the University of Adelaide, he has held positions at the Universities of Oxford, Edinburgh, Kingston London and South Australia. He is a Guest Professor in the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Author of over 200 academic papers, he has written several major books including ‘Conflict and Change in the Countryside’, ‘Methods and Techniques in Human Geography’, ‘Agricultural Geographies’, ‘Sustainable Rural Systems’ and ‘Handbook on the Globalisation of Agriculture’. He is currently leading an Australian Research Council-funded project on ‘Bushfires and Biodiversity’.
Abstract:
This paper reports on results from two major research projects conducted in South Australia. The first investigates adaptation to climate change in two of the state’s major grain and sheep farming regions, using semi-structured interviews. The second uses a postal questionnaire and internet-based surveys of residents in the peri-urban fringes of Adelaide, the state capital, to examine knowledge of and attitudes to climate change and resulting adaptations, especially in the context of increasing risk of wildfires.
The research on climate change adaptation in agriculture focused on formal institutions (e.g. government agencies) and communities of practice (e.g. farm systems groups). Both groups noted that farmers autonomously adapt to various risks, including those induced by climate variability; however, the types and levels of adaptation varied among individuals because of barriers to adaptation. The lack of communication and engagement processes established between formal institutions and communities of practice was one major barrier. The paper presents and discusses a model for transferring knowledge and information on climate change among formal institutions, communities of practice, trusted individual advisors and farmers, and for supporting the co-management of climate change across multiple groups in rural areas in Australia and elsewhere.
The research in the peri-urban fringe revealed that actions taken by individuals to mitigate climate change were linked to the nature of environmental values held (or their ecological worldview) and place attachment. Individuals with a strong place attachment to the study area (the Adelaide Hills) who possessed knowledge of and/or beliefs in climate change were most likely to take mitigating actions. This was also linked to previous experience of major risk from wildfires. A model developed from this study is proposed as part of a process to develop effective climate change policy and educational strategies.
Keynote Forum
Inga Carlman
Mid Sweden University, Sweden
Keynote: To navigate within environmental limits for the benefit of future generations
Biography:
Inga Carlman has worked both as a consultant and as a university lecturer and researcher. She has her expertise in implementing environmental goals, mostly within the fields of renewable energy sources, Environmental Impact Assessment, Public Participation and Environmental Quality standards. Lately her interests has moved toward models/systems in relation to steering instruments. Her work with the nuclear waste problem has given her a deep insights in stakeholders’ perspective, long time problems, and law.
Erik Grönlundis a senior researcher in the interdisciplinary research group of Ecotechnology and Environmental Science at Mid Sweden University. His research is mainly connected to Sustainability Assessment Methods, and modeling of the environmental-economic interface e.g. in watersheds related to the European Union Water Framework Directive. He has an interdisciplinary interest and background in Systems Ecology, Ecological Engineering, Ecophilosophy, Journalism, and Human Ecology.
Abstract:
The negative effects of a changing climate have become increasingly evident along with the more detailed facts due to ongoing research. In spite of a number of societal steering tools (information, economic and legal) mankind seems to a great deal at loss on how to tackle the problems so as to get substantial results.
Vital parts embraced in this problem-picture are e.g. a) the competing paradigms and underlying theoretical assumptions b) the credibility and accuracy of different models and method, c) how to communicate the severeness of the problem to politicians, authorities, industry and the public at large, d) to adapt social steering-tools so as to e.g. make the importance of environmental quality standards understandable and hence change human conduct (Figure 1).
This paper analyses a number of models (both natural scientific and social scientific ones) and discusses their benefits and shortcomings. It furthermore brings up a) the role of public administrators to meet modern demands to take responsibility for future generations, and b) principles industry/business apply to stall proposed suggestions to tackle climate change.
Finally the paper proposes a number of suggestions on how to minimize barriers and to “level the path” for the generations to come.
Keynote Forum
Gualtiero Valeri
Santa Rita University of Rome, Italy
Keynote: The problem of pollued suburban areas: forest recovery of the same for reducing air pollutants, and influence on climate
Biography:
Gualtiero A.N. Valeri borned in Padua, year 1960. Live in Switzerland and in Ecuador. Studied industrial chemistry and chemical engineering in Padua. Consultant in the applied sciences, R&D. Professor of Industrial Chemistry at St. Rita University of Rome. Member of Tiberina Pontificial Academy. Vicepresident of scientific committeè of Meditarranean Parliament. President of Montevenda Engineering International Association. “J. Benveniste” award for the Biophysic, year 2011. Special award for the diffusion of scientific culture from Center “Culturambiente” of Rome and the from “Centre for Peace” of Vatican City, year 2013. “Hyppocrates” award for the Medicine year 2015.
Abstract:
In the overall framework of the causes and problems related to climate change, which proceeds partly for natural causes, partly by human action, an important factor, mentioned by the author in the past, is connected to the change of state of soils and to land use in a great part of the world.
Currently, we have the problem of vast suburban areas with pollued soils by past industrial activities, now abandoned. The extension of these areas is often remarkable.
By means of some arboreous species is possible breaking down, significantly, the atmospheric pollution, and simultaneously remove the pollution from soils.
The possibility of forest reuse of these areas, especially trying to connect them for creating a series of wooded zones around the cities, would lead to a significant number of advantages:
- reducing air pollutants coming from the city itself, with partial removal of greenhouse gases and improve of air quality, even with the reduction of cancer, respiratory and heart disease;
- soil decontamination, for phytoextraction of inorganic and hidrocarbon contaminants and destruction of organic pollutants by microbiological activity;
- improvement of the climate, especially in warm weather;
- reduction of noise coming from traffic roads and railway lines;
- creation of green spaces with recovery of the liveability of cities themselves.
Currently 54% of the world's population is urban; alone in Europe (73% urban population) the recoverable areas may be about 30'000'000 ha. Given that an important part of atmospheric contamination and greenhouse gases come from urban areas, they would be intercepted at the origin with the described interventions.
Compared to other cases of intervention for recovery of soils, forestry and agriculture, these would be implemented in less time, less investment and immediately perceptible benefits, being areas where already exists consciousness of urgent need of requalification and urban replanning.
Keynote Forum
Nicola Scafetta
University of Naples Federico II, Italy
Keynote: Modeling and forecasting climate change: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical model based on natural oscillations
Time : 00:00
Biography:
Biography
Nicola Scafetta is an associate professor in Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography at the Department of Earth Sciences, Environment and Georesources, University of Naples Federico II, Italy, since 2014. He had a PhD in Physics in 2001 from the University of North Texas. From 2002 to 2014 he was a research scientist at Duke University, NC USA, and a visiting professor to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro and at the Elon University. His expertise is also in astronomy and complex systems. He has published 94 scientific articles and two books.
Abstract:
Since 1850 the global surface temperature (GST) has warmed by about 0.9 oC. The CMIP5 general circulation climate models (GCMs) adopted by the IPCC in 2013 have projected that the GST could rise by 2-5 oC from 2000 to 2100 for anthropogenic reasons. These projections are currently used to justify expensive mitigation policies to reduce the emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases such as CO2. However, recent scientific research has demonstrated that those GCMs do not properly reconstruct the natural variability of the climate. The latter is mostly made of oscillations spanning from the decadal to the millennial scales (e.g. with periods of about 9.1, 10.4, 20, 60, 115, 1000, 2100-2500 years and others). I show that these oscillations are synchronized to the major solar and astronomical oscillations of the solar system driven by the revolution of the Jovian planets around the Sun and to specific long-scale solar-lunar tidal oscillations on Earth. A semi-empirical model of climate change based on these oscillations is demonstrated to outperform the CMIP5 GCMs in reconstructing the historical global surface temperature record. The same model, which has been first proposed in 2011, has well agreed with the GST data up to the present day. The model also uses the same volcano and anthropogenic forcing functions adopted by the CMIP5 GCMs, but it predicts a climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling that is half than the CMIP5 GCMs’ one (a mean value of about 1.5 °C versus 3.0 °C), which is consistent with a number of recent studies. The semi-empirical model projects a very moderate warming until 2040 and a warming less than 2 oC from 2000 to 2100 using the same IPCC anthropogenic emission scenarios. Thus, climatic adaptation policies should be sufficient to address the negative consequences of a global warming during the 21st century.
Keynote Forum
Christopher Monckton
Science and Public Policy Institute, UK
Keynote: The social benefit of carbon
Time : 00:00
Biography:
Lord Monckton’s team conductsperceptive research where climatology and economics meet. He lectures worldwide. In 2009 his speech on YouTube condemning the draft Copenhagen climate treaty was viewed by 5 million people.In 2010, on a mountain-top in West Virginia, he addressed a Labor Day rally of 100,000 mineworkers on why coal does more good than harm. In 2011 his WattsUpWithThat posting condemning the draft Durban Treaty was the most-read of 500,000 blog postings hosted by WordPress that day, leading to the abandonment of half the Durban text within 24 hours. He was Nerenberg Lecturer in Mathematics at the University of Western Ontario in 2013. He holds the Meese-Noble Award for Freedom, the Valiant-for-Truth Award and the Intelligence Medal of the Army of Colombia for his research into climate sensitivity. He is working on a paper demonstrating that global warming will occur at only half the originally-predicted rate.
Abstract:
Though the social cost of carbon is erroneously thought to be $30-50/te, the benefits of CO2 outweigh its costs. The use of integrated assessment models has led to grave errors in intertemporal appraisals of the relative merits of mitigation and adaptation. Also, three long-standing errors in the official climate-sensitivity equations require correction, halving the central estimate and reducing the high-end estimate by two-thirds, in line with measured warming. The new method combines the corrected sensitivity equations with standard intertemporal investment-appraisal methodology. It reveals how much global warming any proposed CO2-mitigation policy may abate; the cash, per-capita, and global-GDP cost of abating all global warming from the present to a target year by measures of the same unit abatement cost as the proposed policy; that policy’s unit abatement cost in dollars per Kelvin of warming abated; and the cost/benefit ratio. Case studies illustrating the method’s utility in comparing policy options indicate that government economic projections – often owing to confirmation, partisan-political, rent-seeker, racketeer or noble-cause biases – tend greatly to understate the cost of climate action and as greatly to overstate the imagined welfare loss from inaction. Focused adaptation will, therefore, prove cheaper than attempted mitigation, even if the officially-predicted rate of global warming eventually occurs. Given the small and slow warming now to be expected, commercial discount rates and not artificially-diminished “save-the-planet” discount rates are appropriate. The low energy-density of “renewable” generation causes more environmental damage per TWh generated than fossil generation. No mitigation strategy will be cost-effective solely on grounds of the global net welfare benefit foreseeable from CO2 mitigation alone. Mitigation strategies inexpensive enough to be affordable will be ineffective: strategies costly enough to be effective will be unaffordable. Inaction on greenhouse-gas emissions is the rational economic choice.
Keynote Forum
Albrecht Glatzle
Paraguay
Keynote: Does livestock husbandry really drive climate change?
Time : 00:00
Biography:
Albrecht Glatzle is an Agro-Biologist with a PhD in Soil Microbiology from HohenheimUniversity, Germany. During 27 years of applied research, he worked in Botswana, Morocco and in Paraguay, mainlyin FAO and GTZ-projects. In Paraguayhe served as expert for pasture management at the Chaco Research Station during 8 years with subsequent additional 11 years as Scientific Director of the non-profit private-sector association INTTAS (http://www.chaconet.com.py/inttas/). From 1977 to 1981 and from 1985 to 1989, he was a Hohenheim Universityscientific staff member at the Institutes of Plant Nutrition and Animal Production in the Tropics and Subtropics, respectively. He authored more than 130 publications including two books on pasture management in German and Spanish language. He was awarded with the Fellowship of the Tropical Grassland Society of Australia. Since retirement he operates a cattle-station in Paraguay and acts as a consultant, with special interest in livestock-related environmental and climate-change issues.
Abstract:
Reduction of meat consumption and of global livestock numbers has been recommended for climate change mitigation, even in scientific literature. However, the basic assumptions made to come up with such kind of recommendations reveal severe methodological deficiencies: (1) Carbon footprint, emission intensity, and life cycle assessments of domestic livestock products reported in scientific literature consistently overlooked the necessity of correcting non-CO2-GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions (N2O and CH4) from managed ecosystems for baseline scenarios over time and space (pristine ecosystem and/or pre-climate change emissions: Fig.1). The IPCC guidelines on National GHG-Inventories explicitly ignore baseline emissions when assessing Methane and Nitrous Oxide emissions from agro-ecosystems, therefore overstating tremendously livestock-born emissions particularly from grazing systems. (2)Livestock- and human-born CO2-emissions form part of the natural carbon cycle with no net-effect on atmospheric CO2-leves, except for emissions form land use change and fossil fuel consumption during the production process. In most climate-change related publications CO2-emissions are considered undesirable; there is however a wealth of evidence that manmade CO2 has been beneficial for nature and global food security.(3) Considerable inconsistencies in the methodological treatment of land use change (deforestation) in CO2-emission intensity calculations (per unit of animal product) can be detected in literature. (4) The lack of any discernible livestock signal in global methane distribution and historical methane emission rates has not been acknowledged. (5) Uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity of anthropogenic GHG-emissions have been ignored. Thereis irrefutable evidence of pronounced warm periods during the Holocene (in spite of preindustrial CO2-levels). Thesehardly can be explained with the global warming forcing agents as definedin thelatest IPCC-report,miniaturizing the solar influence on climate change.
A tremendous overestimation of potential livestock contribution to climate change is the logical consequence of these important methodological deficiencies which have been inexorably propagated through recent scientific literature.
Keynote Forum
Christopher Bryant
University of Montreal, Canada
Keynote: Preserving agricultural land and activities in the context of climate change and variability and multiple other stressors: What can land use planning and strategic development planning for agriculture contribute?
Biography:
Christopher Bryant has been professor in Geography at the University of Waterloo (20 years) and at the Université de Montréal (24 years); he is currently Adjunct Professor at the Université de Montréal and in the School of Environmental Design and Rural Development, University of Guelph. He is one of the world’s leading researchers in agriculture around cities (50 years of research), and he has also spent 26 years of research in the adaptation of agriculture to climate change and variability, as well as 30 years in research in local community development. He is currently in the top 7 % of researchers in the Research Gate network.
Abstract:
While considerable research has been undertaken on the adaptation of agriculture to climate change and variability (CCV) over the last 25 years, little emphasis has been placed on: 1) how agricultural adaptation to CCV has also to be set in the context of multiple other stressors facing agriculture such as increasing demands for agriculture to become sustainable from the environmental and human health perspective and from the perspective of continued urbanization pressures on agricultural lands and activities around cities; and 2) how different forms of planning involving agriculture need to be integrated if agricultural lands and activities are to be successfully maintained to be able to contribute to Food Security. This presentation reviews key elements of research into agricultural adaptation to CCV and how these can be recognized in the integration of land use planning AND strategic development planning for agricultural development. Examples coming from North America and Western Europe will be used to demonstrate what types of progress are needed in planning for agricultural land and activities especially near cities to ensure that agricultural development can contribute substantially more to Food Security than it has in the past.
- Track: Climate Change & Climatology
Track: Climate Change Challenges
Track: Climate Change Economics
Location: Room 1
Biography:
Jie’s research focuses on understanding the physical mechanisms of the climate system using model simulations. Jie’s presentation about the subtropical precipitation has recently been published in Nature Climate Change. In the past, he has studied changes in hydroclimate and atmospheric circulation from anthropogenic forcing. He has also worked on understanding and reducing uncertainties in climate projections on both global and regional scales. One of his current research projects involves the dynamics of tropical air-sea interactions. The goal is to quantify various coupling feedback processes in order to build a simple and practical framework for understanding model biases and future changes in air-sea interaction. He has also started working on the connection between transient climate sensitivity and regional ocean heat uptake.
Abstract:
The subtropics encompass many of the world’s driest regions and climate models robustly predict a large-scale decline in subtropical precipitation from anthropogenic forcing. This projection has become popularly related to the “dry-get-drier” paradigm. The expectation that climate change will generally exacerbate the rainfall deficiency of the subtropical regions has excited great concerns. On the other hand, some studies have attributed the subtropical precipitation decline to the poleward expansion of the Hadley cell. In this talk, I will show that neither the “dry-get-drier” nor poleward expansion mechanism is relevant to the large-scale subtropical precipitation decline. It is found that the subtropical precipitation decline forms primarily from the fast adjustment to CO2 forcing in which neither of the two proposed mechanisms exist. Permitting the increase in moisture and the Hadley cell expansion does not substantially change the characteristics of the large-scale subtropical precipitation decline. This precipitation change should be interpreted as a response to the land-sea warming contrast, direct radiative forcing of CO2 and in certain regions, pattern of SST changes. In addition, a careful examination of the spatial patterns of the projected precipitation change shows that the subtropical precipitation decline is primarily located over ocean. Over subtropical land regions, the precipitation decline is muted or even reversed by the land-sea warming contrast.
Biography:
Jaime Senabre (Alicante, 1966). Degree in Psychology. He completed doctoral studies in the Department of Personality, Evaluation and Psychological Treatment of the UNED, related to Stress and Immune System, Mobbing and Trauma.
He is Brigade Chief of Wildland firefighter with 20 years of experience. As a psychologist, he collaborates with several companies and institutions in the area of ​​training in Emergency Psychology and Human Resources. Collaborates as Professor of the University of Valencia in the Master in "Intervention and operational coordination in emergencies and catastrophes" and Diploma of University Specialization in "Instructor in Emergency Operative Services".
Director and President of the Scientific-Professional Committee of the National Symposium on Forest Fires. He has published numerous articles on forest fires, Stress, Psychosocial Risks and Emotional Trauma, mainly in relation to emergency services. He has collaborated with several magazines published in Spain.
Currently, he is attached to the Research Group on "Climate and Territory Planning" of the Faculty of Philosophy and Letters of the University of Alicante.
Abstract:
Wildland fires are an environmental problem in which many factors influence, but they also represent a natural process in many ecosystems and an evolutionary opportunity. Each ecosystem has a characteristic fire regime (frequency level, size, intensity and seasonality determined) that is considered as natural and necessary for the maintenance of the sustainability and biodiversity of the species. From Environmental Psychology we consider it as a latent risk that can compromise the socio-economic development of future generations, mainly in rural areas.
At the ecological level, the problem of forest fires arises when the balance between what is considered as "natural" and sustainable is broken. In Europe, there have been 2.5 million fires that have devastated 20 million hectares in the last 25 years (Legido et al., 2016), 70% of them in southern European countries and 51% in The Iberian Peninsula.
The current forest fire regime is likely to change due to its relation to the climate. The rainfall regime is also changing, with a decrease in water availability and an increase in drought periods, especially in Mediterranean countries. This change will not compensate for the increase in temperature and will increase the flammability of forest areas. But we should not make generalizations about the consequences of climate change, since this alone does not generate or generate a greater number of forest fires on the planet; Although this trend of change may facilitate conditions and favor more virulent and large fire scenarios, so it should be considered as a physical facilitator more in the universe of the problem.
From a causal and social view of the problem, omitting the role of "the human" (anthropogenic variables) in the probability of occurrence of forest fires would pose the problem in a partial way and would be exaggerating the protagonism granted to other types of factors more difficult control. The human being should be the centerpiece of analysis and evaluation, since it is the main detonator of the forest fires. The real "change" we should not look for in the climate or in other external aspects, but in the possibility of a change of thought and attitude of the human being with respect to the latent risk of forest fires.
Babak Farjad
University of Calgary, Canada
Title: Selecting GCM scenarios for climate change impact assessment
Biography:
Babak Farjad is currently a Post-doctoral Fellow at the University of Calgary. His work involves developing a hydrological modelling system to evaluate and predict the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrology of the Lower Athabasca River basin in Alberta, Canada. His PhD research was developing a modeling framework to investigate the impact of climate and land-use/cover change on hydrological processes in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada.
Abstract:
Statement of the Problem: One of the main challenges in climate change impact assessment studies is selecting suitable climate change scenarios to be used in a regional environmental modelling system. Using all available Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios would be one way to build the complete picture of the range of climate change and variability but may not always be feasible for such studies. On the other hand, there is no recommended standard number of GCM scenarios to use while the number of GCMs is increasing at a rapid pace. This can be a more challenging case when it comes to understanding responses of hydrological regimes to climate change. This is because first using a large number of GCMs to a hydrological model to simulate the hydrological responses is computationally intensive. Second, even though some selected extreme climate change scenarios may appear to be useful, the non-linearity in the impact response can lead to quite different results. The purpose of this study: In order to shed some light on this issue, this study was undertaken to develop a methodology for selecting representative climate change scenarios that capture all plausible future climate variability affecting the hydrological response of a watershed. Methodology:The study employs three different methods; fuzzy clustering, k-means clustering, and change factors (CFs) to select climate change scenarios out of a combination of 33 GCM scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) in the Muskeg watershed in Alberta, Canada. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated to simulate streamflow under the selected GCM scenarios for the period of 2046-2065 relative to the baseline of 1986-2005 in the watershed. Flow duration curves (FDCs) were constructed to represent peak, mid-range average flow, and low daily flows, for each climate scenario. Findings: Results revealed that the fuzzy clustering-based method performed well compared to the k-means clustering and change factors (CFs) methods.Conclusion & Significance: This study gives clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios based on selecting representative scenarios that capture all plausible future variability affecting the hydrological response. However, the most appropriate climate scenarios for a particular region will not necessarily be the most appropriate for anotherregion due to different climate and geomorphological characteristics.
Youmin Chen
Henan University, China
Title: Using WRF model to simulate how the global warminginfluences the extreme storm
Biography:
Youmin Chen has many work experiences as in the list below, and most of his duties in the work are in the technical aspects, such as database manager, scientific programmer. Therefore, he has a quite broad work area in the aspects of earth sciences such as WRF modeling and the CORDEX work; statistical downscaling (CCA, REOF, step-wise regression etc.); expanded downscaling and hydrological modeling; carbon cycle (in Max-Planck institute for Biogeochemistry); as well as weather generator (stochastic modeling with Monte Carlo method, QuantileMapping method) and so on. He is always trying to develop the technical work as good as possible. For instance, he was doing the CORDEX task in Bjerknes Center for Climate Research (Norway), and developed a series of scripts for WRF modeling and post-processing, so the CORDEX task could be rather easily carried out.
Abstract:
Using the WRF model, which is developed at the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in USA, we simulated an extreme storm event occurred in China in August 1975, a well-known event called the 758-storm. The reanalysis data, ERA40, from Europe Center for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF) was employed as the WRF’s boundary. The spatial resolution at the center of the simulated storm is set to be 2000 meter, which is realized by means of the nested domain in the study area. The simulation time step is set to be 60 minutes, corresponding to the 2000 meter spatial resolution. There are 60 layers in the sigma coordinate at the vertical direction and the top level pressure is defined as 50hPa. We first simulated 3-dimension structure of the 758-storm, which is used to analyze the development and mechanism of the storm event. Afterwards, an extra simulation experiment focusing on the 758-storm was carried out,i.e. through increasing the temperature variables by 2℃for the WRF simulation we explored how the climate warming influences the future storm events. In addition, We also generated a set of downscaled data based on CORDEXstandard for East Asia area and these CORDEX data was used to express the 758-storm, which shows significant difference with the simulation of 758-storm as above. Finally we concluded that the spatial resolution is very important for better simulation of extreme storm.
Jaiho Oh
Pukyong National University, Korea
Title: Study on method for synthetic precipitation data for ungauged sites using quantitative precipitation model
Biography:
Deanna Jaiho Oh. At present, he is Professor in the Department of Environmental Atmospheric Sciences of the Pukyong National University since 2001. His primary field of research is Climate System, however, his current research interests include numerical weather prediction, disaster prevention, early warning, and regional impact of climate change. He has published more than 120 peer reviewed research papers and 26 books.
Abstract:
A method was developed to estimate a synthetic precipitation record for ungauged sites using irregular coarse observations. The proposed synthetic precipitation data were produced with ultra-high hourly resolution on a regular 1 × 1 km grid. The proposed method was used to analyze selected real-time observational data collected in South Korea from 2010 to the end of 2014. The observed precipitation data were measured using the Automatic Weather System and Automated Synoptic Observing System. The principal objective of the proposed method was to estimate the additional effects of orography on precipitation introduced by ultra-high-resolution (1 × 1 km) topography provided by a digital elevation model. The Global Forecast System analysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction was used for the upper atmospheric conditions, necessary for estimating the orographic effects. Precipitation data from 48 of the more than 600 observation sites used in the study, which matched the grid points of the synthetic data, were not included in the synthetic data estimation. Instead, these data were used to evaluate the proposed method by direct comparison with the real observations at these sites.
A bias score was investigated by comparison of the synthetic precipitation data with the observations. In this comparison, the number of Hit, False, Miss, and Correct results for 2010-2014 was 74738, 25778, 7544, and 367981, respectively. In the Hit cases, the bias score was 1.22 and the correlation coefficient was 0.74. The means of the differences between the synthetic data and the observations were 0.3, -3.9, -14.4, and -34.9 mm h-1 and the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were 2.7, 8.3, 19.3, and 39.6 mm h-1 for the categories of 0.5-10.0, 10.0-30.0, 30.0-50.0, and 50.0-100.0 mm h-1, respectively. In addition, in each range, the
60% difference between the synthetic precipitation data and the observation data was - 1.5 to +1.5, -5.0 to +5.0, -17.0 to +17.0, and -33.0 to +33.0 mm h-1, respectively.
Overall, the correlation coefficient of the synthetic precipitation data was >0.7 for 43 of the 48 test stations and the RMSE was <4 mm h-1 at 31 stations. The results are significant at all evaluation stations at the 0.05 significance level.
Fabiana Barbi
University of Campinas, Brazil
Title: Mitigation strategies in Brazil and China:A review of the last 20 years
Biography:
Fabiana Barbi is a postdoctoral researcher at the Centre for Environmental Studies (Nepam), University of Campinas (Unicamp) in Brazil. Her current research involves climate change policies in Brazil and China, concerning mitigation strategies at national level.She holds a PhD degree in Environment and Society (Unicamp, Brazil, 2013). She holds a MSc in Environmental Science (University of São Paulo, Brazil - 2007) and a BSc in Social Sciences and Sociology (University of Campinas, Brazil - 2002). She was a visiting researcher at the Center for US-China Policy Studies at San Francisco State University (2016) and at the Institute of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China (2012).She is aresearch fellow of the Future Earth.
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the internalization process of the climate issue at the government level in Brazil and China. This analysis is based on three points: i) Trajectory of greenhouse gases emissions in Brazil and China, (1992-2016); ii) Political and institutional structures mobilized to the climate issue, focusing on mitigation; iii) Political responses related to climate change, through a historical reconstruction of policies related to climate change mitigation. The results of our analysis show that there has been a change in the profile of greenhouse gases emissions in Brazil. Land-use change and forestry sector has no longer been the most responsible for emissions since 2010. However, all other sectors have increased their emissions. In China, the emission growth level has declined reflecting the country's efforts in the installation of low carbon power generation and improvements in energy intensity. In Brazil, there was a significant increase in the production and systematization of studies and reports, which can assist the design and implementation of climate policies. China has also made some progress in this direction. In Brazil, the climate issue internalization process is characterized by three phases: i) establishment of political-institutional and scientific structures engaged with the issue; ii) development of political and scientific climatic agenda; iii) development of climate policies and strengthening scientific agenda. The national policy agenda is focused on the implementation of sectoral plans, to meet the voluntary mitigation targets established by the National Climate Change Policy. In the Chinese case, the process has two phases: the first, is more focused on combating air pollution, whereas the climate issue stands as secondary focus of action and the second, more proactive regarding concrete commitments on climate change, with the establishment of the National Climate Change Program and the National Leadership Panel on Climate Change.
Xinping Chen
China Agricultural University, China
Title: Estimating maize yield potential and yield gap with agro-climatic zones in China – distinguish irrigated and rainfed conditions
Biography:
Xinping Chen makes a long-term commitment to cooperative achieve high crop yield and high nutrient efficiency in the research of nutrient resource management. He has established the theoretical model and technical indicators of “In-season Root Nitrogen Management”. It suggests a new way to fertilizer saving, environment protecting and efficiency improving for the intensive agricultural production system. Meanwhile, he was also focus on the impact of climate change on the crop yield, especially the impact of precipitation, temperature and solar radiation with the crop model. He has successively undertaken lots of national projects and international cooperation projects, and published a large number of papers in journals like Nature, PANS, GCB, and EST.
Abstract:
Understanding yield potential (Yp) and yield gap (Yg) in current intensive maize (Zea mays L.) production is essential to meet future food demand with the limited resources. In this study, we used the agro-climatic zones (CZs) and the reference weather stations (RWS) buffer zones, together with the Hybird-Maize model to estimate maize Yp in the four maize-growing-regions of China under both irrigated and rainfed conditions. In irrigated maize areas, we got 70 RWS buffer zones, and total maize area in the RWS buffer zones covered 67% of the whole irrigated maize area.In rainfed maize areas, we got 106 RWS buffer zones, which covered 51% of the whole rainfed maize area. As a result, the average Yp was 14.2 t ha-1 and farmers have achieved 58% of Yp. The average water-limited yield potential (Yw) was 10.7 t ha-1 and farmers have achieved 65% of Yw. Further analysis for four maize-growing-regions showed that precipitation was a limiting factor for Yw to fully achieve Yp except in Southwest China (SW), whereas the average precipitation wasmore than 653 mm during maize growing season. The ratio between Yw and Yp (Yw/Yp) was 51% in Northwest China (NW), and around 80% in both Northeast China (NE) and North China Plain (NCP). The comparison of Yp in different regions showed the low Yp in NE was due to low temperature while Yp in both NCP and SW were limited by low solar radiation. In conclusion, our findings highlight the efficiency and importance to estimate Yp, Yw and Yg by the upscaling method with CZs and RWS buffer zones. Meanwhile, the comparison of Yp, Yw and Yg in different regions was important to improve maize production in future in China.
Hilaire Yankulije
Center for Research on Societies and Environments, France
Title: Chinese five years plan (2016-2020) and its role in green house GAZ reduction and climate resilience Global polic
Biography:
Hilaire Yankulije is a former Benedictine monk, graduated from Paris school of international affairs where he specialized in political sciences with a concentration on climate change policies. Lawyer, YANKULIJE holds a Master’s degree in Comparative Law and conduct a PHD research in Public Law at Université de Perpignan Via Domitia. Sociologist (Bachelor’s degree in social sciences from Kigali Independent University) he’s also a specialist of local governance and development (university advanced degree from Université Senghor d’Alexandrie).
Abstract:
The role of China in both in emission of Greenhouses gases is important. This country is now world number one in above said gases emission and its yearly deposits in atmosphere is enormous. In 2009, the Chinese emission was about 10, 33 Gt. This amount was representing more than 30% of Global emission because the latter was 35,27Gt.In 2014, according to international reports, the annual Chinese emission reached 29% of Global emission. For some details, the former Mongolian empire contributed to by two-thirds to the net growth of coal consumption and the latter part in global total CO2 deposited in atmosphere is 40%. Even it becomes evident that International community still seized by the problem the role of big emitters and china particularly remain a focus of every one who want to examine the problem.
As many of world countries China have submitted its INDC in which it promises to enhance the actions against climate change among which the reduction of CO2 emission by 33.8% lower than the 2005 level; to increase the forest area by 21.6 million hectares and 2.188 billion cubic meters compared to the 2005 levels. In the electrification of energy, China envision to build a hydropower capacity of 300 gigawatts the capacity of on-grid wind power is 95.81 gigawatts and the capacity of solar power of The installed capacity of solar power is 28.05 gigawatts. However, in the aftermath of COP21 we can ask ourselves how China is translating into action those promises. This Paper aim at exploring how China five years economic plan envisions to reduce Greenhouse gases emission.
Chris Moseki
Dept. of Water and Sanitation, South Africa
Title: Climate change impacts on groundwater: Literature review
Biography:
Chris Moseki has 15 years experienced in groundwater development and water resources management. He also served as a research manager at the Water Research Commission responsible for development of tools and systems for adaptation to climate change over a period of 6 years. He is currently a climate change specialist scientist at the Department of Water and Sanitation. His interest includes research in groundwater and climate change as well as resolution of climate and water related problems in the public sector.
Abstract:
Water is indeed a medium through which climate change influences the Earth’s ecosystem particularly since any negative impact thereon has ripple effect on almost everything else. The change in frequency, intensity and patterns in rainfall, as well as change in temperature has implication for replenishment of groundwater storage. However, groundwater-residence times can range from days to tens of thousands of years or more, which delays and disperses the effects of climate and challenges efforts to detect responses in the groundwater to climate variability and change. Hence, understanding the potential effects of climate variability and change on groundwater is more complex than with surface water. Several studies relating to the effect of climate changes on surface water bodies have been undertaken while very little research exists on the potential effects of climate change on groundwater. This literature review aims to collate and depict work done previously on climate change impact on groundwater and to serve as a prelude to a research study on what and how appropriate response measures should be taken. A simplistic empirical relationship between mean annual rainfall and recharge was used in research to show that a decrease in rainfall over the central parts of Southern Africa could have dire consequences for groundwater dependent communities. Findings were that 20% decrease in mean annual rainfall volumes could translate to an 80% decline in recharge for areas that currently receive 500 mm rainfall per annum or less. Other studies show that the sea-level rise that accompanies climate change will reduce the freshwater supply in many coastal communities, by infiltrating groundwater and rendering it brackish and undrinkable without excessive treatment. This shows that the impact of climate change on groundwater may be in terms of quality such as deterioration of water by saline intrusion or in terms of quantity.
Wenjie Dong
Sun Yat-sen University, China
Title: A Brief Introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and Its Earth Surface
Biography:
Professor and Dean of School of Atmospheric Science, Sun Yat-senUniversity, China. Served as Director-General, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration during 2003-2008; as aMember of Scientific Planning Groupfor China of Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research since 2006; as a member of Scientific Steering Committee of CLIVAR/WCRP during 2007-2011; as Chairmen of GEWEX-CNC since 2005; as the lead author of WGI of IPCC AR5 since 2010 and the P.I. of the project “Multi-model ensemble projection and attribution of climate change based on CMIP5”. Research interests: climate change, climate dynamics and climate prediction, land-atmosphere interactions, regional and global climate modeling, flood and drought, monsoon dynamics, orderly human activity and living environment. Published 130 papers and 5 books.
Abstract:
Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactionsbetween human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper, a new human–earth system model, BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model ofClimate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model, is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating theglobal CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that, compared to observation, BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005, due to the uncertainty in the economiccomponents. However, the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation, resulting fromthe overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within therange of present earth system uncertainty, so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needsto be improved through further study. However, the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigatethe complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that provevaluable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate
Oyeleke Oyerinde
Federal University of Petroleum Resources, Nigeria
Title: Climate change: Impact, adaptation and mitigation in coastal areas of Niger delta, Nigeria
Biography:
OyelekeOyerinde has his expertise in environmental management and assessment with bias for petroleum related activities such as gas flaring and venting, oil spillage as well as climate related events. He is a burgeoning but fervent scholar in teaching and research in educational institutions. He is currently a faculty member of the first petroleum university in Africa.
Abstract:
Climate change is a global issue and its impact is felt everywhere by both humans and ecosystems. It is increasingly becoming a serious challenge to the inhabitants of the Niger delta region. Moreover, the Niger Delta region of Nigeria is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its fragile ecosystem and human activities that have heightened the propensity of climate change and its impacts on the region. This paper draws attention to climate change impacts, adaptation strategies and mitigation policies for coastal areas of Niger Delta in Nigeria. A mix of primary and secondary data sources were utilized mainly comprising of interviews, direct observations and on the spot assessments in conjunction with existing research works and government ministries publications. Analyses show that various manifestations of climate change impact are evident in the coastal areas of Nigeria such as coastal erosion, change in rainfall pattern, sea level rise and flooding. The people within this region, who mostly depend on climate-sensitive sectors, attempt to adapt to these changes using various methods such as construction of wooden pedestrian bridges and delay in planting among others. Currently, there are no effective mitigative plans especially at the local level, therefore, it is recommended that this be addressed through well-articulated and coordinated policies.
Daniel Gbujie
University of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Nigeria
Title: Is climate change the Armageddon foretold to the world?: A review
Biography:
Gbujie Daniel major interest is the protection environment and promotion of sustainable development goals among developing nations in Africa. He works temporarily with in a Teaching Hospital in Rivers State, Nigeria for over six years as a medical officer. An advocate for youth empowerment through education, an environmental activist and an advocate of better health care delivery in Nigeria and West Africa. He has published articles, editorial and made numerous international presentations on sustainable development goals especially on health and leadership challenges. He serves on several local and national boards in Nigeria, an associate member of the World Medical Association, the Chief Volunteer Coordinator of Sure Health Organization an NGO and an official with Junior Doctors of Africa, currently an Atlas Corp Fellow for 2017 and was a delegate to the last UN climate change convention in Marrakesh Morocco.
Abstract:
Statement of the Problem: Climate change impact reveals how man has destroyed earth through burning of fossil fuel and depletion of natural resources. These activities may have worsened and altered the ecological biosphere by causing changes in all the climate entities. This extreme phenomenon called climate change has a negative impact on health. The aim of this paper is to encourage global and national proactive policies and strategic approaches towards tackling climate change. Methodology: This study involved screening of articles that primarily discussed climate change and its consequences. Articles used for this research came from scientific search engines, research journals, Newspapers, TV reporting, Textbooks and international agencies' reports on climate change.
Findings: This article identified the causes of climate change and its consequences to mankind. It equally noted the evolving human attitude towards other species and to follow humans manifesting in various forms as extreme violent conflicts, negative laws that hampers the effort to mitigate its impact, as they compete for the depleting natural resources. Further, juxtaposing these thoughts with what should be our urgent action plan to mitigate or manage possible consequences of climate change effects. Though the concept of using technology through geo-engineering system to create a climatic condition conducive for human existence seems promising for future, but promoting healthy lifestyles and public awareness to mitigating the climate change effect still remain a realistic approach in the interim while we encourage innovative energy efficient and renewable technology. Conclusion & Significance: This paper also is intended to contribute to the existing knowledge on climate change while creating awareness on the need to regulate human activities to prevent the likely extinction of life form on earth while providing a collaborative ideas or solutions for developing nations especially to attain sustainable ecological development through adaption and mitigation.
Mei Zi Tan
Monash University
Australia
Title: The bumpy ride of the EU emission trading scheme: An analysis of regulatory and governance challenges
Biography:
Mei Zi Tan is a sessional teaching staff in Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University. She is currently pursuing her PhD degree in Faculty of Law in the same university. Prior to joining Monash University, Mei Ziwasa senior tax consultant in BDO and KPMG Tax Malaysia. Her background spans the areas of taxation, economics, accounting, and environmental law.
Abstract:
For more than a decade, the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) enjoysthe fame for being the world’s largest ETS. Nonetheless, the reality behind this fame is that the scheme has not been optimally designed to achieve its key objective of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Due to its unsatisfactory performance, many researchers have examined the regulatory challenges in the EU ETS using economic lens. Their works are valuable but less pragmatic for policymakers. This articleaims to supplement the existing economic literature on the EU ETS by offering useful insights using legal lens. Specifically, it willanalyzethe influence of governance factorson the design features of the EU ETS. The regulatory problems of the EU ETS from Phase I to Phase III are explained using a three-level governance model as shown on the right. The main arguments are that the regulatory problemsofthe earlier phases were due to the discretions given to the member states.On the other hand, the sub-optimal reforms in current phaseare largely the responsibility of the EU legislative institutions – the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the Council of Ministers. As for Phase IV, this article highlightsthe importance of citizensin shaping the future reformsof the EU ETS. The findings of this article provide relevant inputs for policymakers in the EU and other jurisdictions.
Eunhee Choi
Korea Rural Community and Corporation(KRC)
South Korea
Title: A study of strategy for the forestry carbon emission linking on ETS under post 2020
Biography:
Eunhee Choi has her expertise in Environmental Engineering under Climate Change. Since 2005 she has been the researcher at Rural Research Institute(RRI), Korea Rural Community and Corporation(KRC). Her main Research theme in RRI: Policy and model development related to biomass utilization and greenhousegas reduction. In these days researching on forestry carbon emission under the post-2020
Abstract:
In 2015, the international community concluded the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions starting in the year 2020. And 147 Partieshave ratified the Agreement and 162 Parties have submitted to the UN their first nationally determined contributions (NDCs), including their reduction goals. The Paris Agreement agreed on SDM(Sustainable Development Mechanism), or a new international carbon market mechanism after 2020, cooperative approaches, and non-market-based approaches. In response, most countries are working to achieve their respective NDCs not only by reducing domestic greenhouse gas emissions, increasing carbon sinksand using the internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMO).
Accordingly, there has been a growing interest in registering a project to increase carbon sinks with the International Market Mechanism and contributing to achievement of NDC by acquiring ITMO.
The project to increase carbon sinks is generally composed of forestation & reforestation, forest management and REDD+, of which reforestation is the only project that is recognized as the project to increase carbon sinks in the existing CDM. And REDD+ projects were agreed as a greenhouse gas emission reduction project in Article 5 of the Paris Agreement. However, forest management is recognized as a project to increase carbon sinks only by some programs such as the Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS).
Therefore, this study is going to analyze countries and their relevant plans including ITMO and the project to increase carbon sinks by analyzing the NDCs of 147 countries. Then, it will make a comparative analysis on whether an emission trading scheme or a carbon offset scheme for each country recognizes emissions about the project to increase carbon sinks. Based on the results of the analysis, this study is going to analyze the potential for acquiring carbon emissions of the project to increase carbon sinks in the new climate regime, and suggest a plan to activate the project.
Natalia Zugravu-Soilita
University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines
France
Title: The impact of trade in environmental goods on pollution: What are we learning from the transition economies’ experience?
Biography:
Natalia Zugravu-Soilita is Associate Professor in Economics at the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines since September 2012. She was awarded Ph.D. degree in 2009 by Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University following the defense of a thesis that sheds new light on the environmental consequences of the interactions between the reform of trade and investment policies and the efforts made to protect the environment in the Central and Eastern European countries. Today, her academic research supported by econometrics focuses on topics related to the low-carbon economy, economic openness (trade, FDI, international tourism) and sustainable development, in an international comparison approach.
Abstract:
We investigate the causal effects of trade intensity in environmental goods (EGs) on air and water pollution by treating trade, environmental policy and income as endogenous. We estimate a system of reduced-form, simultaneous equations on extensive data, from 1995 to 2003, for transition economies that include Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States.Our empirical results suggest that although trade intensity in EGs (pooled list) reduces COâ‚‚ emissions mainly through an indirect income effect, it increases water pollution because the income-induced effect does not offset the direct harmful scale-composition effect. No significant effect is found for SO2 emissions with respect to the list of aggregated EGs. In addition to diverging effects across pollutants, we show that results are sensitive to EGs’ classification: e.g., cleaner technologies and products, end-of-pipe products, environmentally preferable products, etc. For instance, a double profit—environmental and economic—is found only for “cleaner technologies and products” in the models explaining greenhouse gases emissions. Interesting findings are discussed for imports and exports of various classifications of EGs. Overall, we cannot support global and uniform trade liberalization for EGs in a sustainable development perspective. Regional or bilateral trade agreements taking into account the states’ priorities could act as building blocks towards a global, sequentially achieved liberalization of EGs.
So Youn (Annie) Kim
Carleton University
Canada
Title: Solutions for post-territorial sovereignty in maritime states
Biography:
Annie received her Honors Bachelor of Arts in International Relations with distinctions from Western University. She is pursuing a Master’s degree at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa. Her various research interests include global environmental politics, Southeast Asian studies, and Cuban history and culture.
Abstract:
Climate change threatens national security. Our research is based on one of the most vulnerable groups: the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), whose lands will be submerged partially or entirely by 2100 (AOSIS, 2015). Their consequential loss of territory would result in the loss of legal status as nation-states. Thus, the need for policy measures and international legal counsel should be recognized as early as possible. We will analyze the feasibility of their relocation plans to optimize an efficient process of resettlement, based upon multiple criteria such as cultural compatibility, the presence of available dispute resolution mechanisms, geographical proximity, and temporal and spatial practicality. Then, we will consider possible solutions to maintain the nation-state status of maritime countries. From an international law perspective, we will explore the possibility of amending international treaties to ensure that the submerged land be recognized as legitimate state territory. This research will analyze possible legal solutions based on historical precedents; support from other countries and international organizations; spatial and temporal implications; and the practical applicability of these methods. This research has implications for the global community because rising sea levels will affect two-thirds of the world population living within 100 kilometers of any coastline (UNEP, 2005). This paper aims to providea legal reference and practical guide for maritime states in the years to come.
Hamidreza Ahmadzadeh Araji
Universiti Putra Malaysia
Malaysia
Title: Impacts of projected climate changes on soybean production in Karaj Region, Iran
Biography:
HamidrezaAhmadzadehAraji, has bachelor’s degree in Agricultural engineering (Irrigation). He has also obtained a Master’s Degree of Agricultural Meteorology, which he successfully completed at Tehran Islamic Azad University, Branch of Science, and Research. He is Currently PhD student of Water Resources Engineering at UPM. According to his thesis title, he is working on impacts of climate changes on crop production by using crop modeling.
Abstract:
Climate change significantly affects water resources and crop production in future. However, response of soybean yield and biomass to water stress, and probable changes of temperature, rainfall, and CO2 rate in each climate region is questionable and still lack of researches worldwide. In this research, two consecutive years of soybean experimental data collected at Karaj Seed and Plant Improvement Institute, and applied to evaluate the capability of the AquaCrop model to simulate soybean final yield, and biomass under projected climate change scenarios. AquaCrop was calibrated in 2010 and validated in 2011 by using four different varieties including L17, Williams*Hobbit, M9, and M7 under three irrigation levels which defined as without water stress (I1), mild water stress (I2), and severe water stress (I3). Statistical analysis, including root mean square error normalized, determination coefficient (R2), and paired t-tests showed that simulated and observed values were the same at 95% confidence level. The results represented that AquaCrop had enough credit to predict yield and biomass in this study. Moreover, impacts of climate change assessed by using 15 GCMs output from downscaling model LARS-WG for the periods 2011–2030 centered at 2020, under A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios, for 12 treatments. Ensemble means of yield, biomass from AquaCrop output, and under three emission scenarios for future 2020s compared to calibration year in 2010. The results of yield, and biomass showed increasing for most treatments in 2020s.
Bandinee Pradhan
Management Development Institute
India
Title: People’s attitude about Climate Change: Designing the right marketing strategy
Biography:
Bandinee is currently an FPM (doctoral) Scholar in Marketing Area at MDI Gurgaon, India. Her research interests include Service Marketing, Consumer Behavior, Social Business and Entrepreneurship, Environmental Marketing and Internet of Things.
Abstract:
Statement of the Problem:Climate change has since a long time ago stopped to be a scientific interest, and is no longer just one of numerous natural and regulatory concerns. As the United Nations Secretary-General has said, it is the major, overriding ecological issue of our time, and the single most noteworthy challenge facing environmental regulators. It is a growing crisis with financial, wellbeing and safety, food production, security, and other dimensions. Shifting weather pattern, for instance, threaten food production through increased unpredictability of precipitation, rising ocean levels debase coastal freshwater reserves and build the danger of catastrophic flooding, and a warming environment aids the pole ward spread of pests and diseases once limited to the tropics. It is truly vital that earthlings ought to think about the earth and natural assets. The primary purpose of this research is tofind out people’s attitude towards Climate Change. Secondary purpose is to discuss how social marketers can design there marketing strategy to indulge green behavior. Methodology: The paper involves exploring the views, experiences, beliefs and/or motivations of individuals on climate change thus semi structured interview was used. Findings: Interview transcripts were analyzed through coding. QDA Minor lite, software for text analysis was used. Emerging themes were identified during the coding. Themes suggest the reasons why possibly people don’t care about climate change as a real happening thing in the current era. Uncertainty, mistrust and disbelieve were identified as the primary reasons.Conclusion & Significance: Uncertainty over climate change reduces the frequency of “green” behavior in people. The overall finding suggests people may be missing on strong message required about climate change to become aware and work collectively one on precautionary measures. This paper has implication for social marketers, govt. agency and Non-profit environment workers. It can help them understand the audiences view before designing any message that deals with environmental issues.
- Track: Global Warming Effects & Causes
Track: Climate Change: Biodiversity Scenarios
Track: Oceans & Climate Change
Track: Effective Adaptation
Track: Climate Hazards
Location: Room 1
Session Introduction
Wm Ye
Tongji University, China
Title: Development of drying cracknetworks in slurries with different thicknesses
Biography:
Wm Ye has his expertise on investigation on engineering behaviour of unsaturated soil and prevention of geological disasters. In the last 15 years, he focused on experimental exploration to the hydro-thermo-mechanical properties of densely compacted bentonite for using as buffer/backfill materials for deep geological disposal of high-level nuclear waste. Properties of geo-materials related to geological storage of CO2,as well as conservation of earthen heritages under extremely dry climate are also investigated.
Abstract:
Statement of the Problem: As one of the dominant climate-related hazardsall over the world, drought occurs more frequently and widely in recent years.Especially in the field of geotechnical engineering, such extreme condition could trigger intense shrinkage cracking of soils,leading toirrecoverable damageforbothmodern infrastructures and ancient earthen heritages. For a drying soil, previous researchers mainly focused onfinal morphology of crack pattern influenced byambient temperature, RH and mineral types etc.However,the wholeprocess of crack network development is far less investigated,particularly in a quantitative way.
Material & Methodology: Slurries with different initial thicknesses (2, 5, 10 and 15mm)were preparedin circular containers, from low-plastic silty clay with water content 45%.Specimens were exposed to air drying in a laboratory undercontrolledtemperature 20±1oC. During desiccation, the evolving crack networks were recorded regularly using a digital camera and further analyzed resorting to image processing technique. Three geometric parameters, i.e. CIF(crack intensity factor), total crack length (L) and average crack width (W), were quantified.
Findings:As water content dropped below the liquid limit30%, cracks started to initiate on soil surface. Both L and W increased gradually in the following stage, however, the evolution trend was different among specimens.For 15mm slurry,Lstopped increasing at air-entry water content (22%),while W kept growing until shrinkage limit (16%) was reached.In comparison,2mm slurry was dominated by elongationof cracks, accompanied by only slight widening.In addition, CIF increased from 5.26% to 10.32% as thickness increased. Crack patterncut extensively by small and narrow cracks transformed gradually into less fragmented one.
Conclusion & Significance: Thicknesshad a great impact onboth development and final morphology of drying cracking networks. This providessome useful information for understanding the mechanisms in practical issues.
Alexander Panin
Kirov Military Medical Academy, Russia
Title: An objective predictor of global climate change is the monitoring of high-latitude microbiota
Biography:
Panin Alexander is a senior lecturer at the Department of Microbiology of the Military Medical Academy and an expert in medical support for the preparation of expeditions to the Arctic Antarctic by the Research Institute of St. Petersburg. Participant 50 and 56 Russian Antarctic Expeditions. I prepare sanitary passports for coastal stations and field bases. I monitor the quality of compliance with sanitary and anti-epidemic (preventive) measures of facilities with instructions for eliminating shortcomings. I investigate psychrophils – bacteria living at low temperatures under extreme polar conditions, species with medical significance. The experience gained in the Antarctic is used in the Arctic.
Abstract:
Microorganisms are clearly responding to climate changes. Microbial species can be indicators of anthropogenic influence on polar ecosystems. Global climate changes may also affect the composition and structure of microbial communities in the Antarctic. Microbiological monitoring (MM) is very important for establishment of pathogens transmission as well as the epidemiological situation on the polar stations area. The aim of this work was to study the microbial biocenosis of Antarctica and to show the role of MMas a predictor of the risks associated with global climate change.
Systematic study of the microbiota in the Antarctic ecosystems held since 1996 (42-th season work of RAE). These works were accompanied by bacteriological and sanitary mycological examination of water, soil, the study of flora and fauna in the vicinity of objects RAE and the surrounding areas. One of the important tasks was to identify possible sources of accumulation of Yersinia and other pathogens around polar stations. The main feature of this work was the annual sampling from the same habitat allowing study dynamics of the microbiota on the polar stations area as well as natural ecosystems. Wide range of bacteriological and mycological methods of research and identification of microorganisms including molecular methods were used.
As result of microbiological monitoring in Antarctic coastal areas around RAE objects it was revealed that the number of bacteria in preliminary Antarctic soil increased in 1.5-3 times for last years. Many species of opportunistic bacteria and micromycetes were found in observed territory. Variety of bacteria and fungi in the areas of anthropogenic pollution was significantly higher than in natural ecosystems. These works continued into subsequent Antarctic expeditions. At the moment, the priorities of our studies are inclined to the Arctic regions of the RF. The results obtained are processed and require detailed analysis.
It is important to conduct the regular monitoring of birds inhabiting on the territories surrounding the polar stations for development of preventive and anti-epidemic measures. The results of these studies contribute to establish risks predictors of the global climate change, possibility of the emergence of zoonotic and anthroponotic diseases. These studies form the basis of the concept of "polar epidemiology" with scientific substantiation of preventive and anti-epidemic measures.Thetopicofclimateresearchisveryrelevantforthebiologicalandmedicalcommunity. It is necessary to predict and respond to climate challenges in a timely manner, or to create them better for humanity.
Addisalem Bitew Mitiku
University of Kiel, Germany
Title: CO2 dissolution and convective flow in an anticline saline reservoir
Biography:
Addisalem Bitew Mitiku has completed her PhD in Geohydromodelling from University of Kiel at Institute of Geosciences and her MSc in Hydroinformatics and Water Management from EuroAquea joint European masters programme. She has been working as lecturer at Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia and as a researcher at University of Kiel, Germany. Her research interest includes Computational Hydraulics, Hydroinformatics, Hydrogeology, Climate change and Geo-Storage.
Abstract:
It is a requirement for the implementation of the CO2 - geostorage technology that the long-term fate of injected CO2 into the subsurface is understood. Dissolution trapping is known as a long-term process that able to reduce the leakage risk of the gas phase of CO2 from a reservoir. This study, therefore, examines the influence of convective flow driven by density differences on the dissolution of gaseous CO2 into the highly saline formation fluid. The characteristic of a potential anticline reservoir located in the North German sedimentary basin is used as a case study. Numerical scenario simulations conducted for the 2D cross section of the reservoir by accounting the dissolution of CO2 and further by accounting the geochemical reactions (i.e. mineral dissolution/precipitation) effects. It is observed that in both scenarios the density of formation fluid increases and results convective flow. In the first scenario, the amounts of CO2 dissolved in the reservoir were doubled due to convective mixing process. When both dissolution and geochemical reaction effects are considered, the amount of dissolved CO2 increased by 116 % compared to the model results without free-convection. The convective mixing was also faster in early time when geochemical reaction effects were included. In both scenarios, the results show that the falling of the saturated brine continues until it reaches to the bottom of the anticline, where it further moves towards to the flank.
Eiji Komatsu
Meiji University, Japan
Title: Development of policy strategy for carbon capture and storage; Case study based in Japan
Biography:
Eiji Komatsu is a Senior Researcher at the Centre for Environmental Law, Meiji University, Japan.He graduated with a PhD in field of Environmental Science from the University of Tsukuba Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, and has experience of regulatoryscience as NIES fellow in National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. This study is an importantnationally funded project which is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1603) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency.
Abstract:
The central aim of the Paris Agreement has been to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by restricting the rise in global temperature in this century to less than 2 °C over pre-industrial levels. To achieve this target, an ambitious carbon capture and storage (CCS) growth path will be required, with many projects needed globally by 2050 (Beck et al 2011).
Asia is one of the few regions that has an increasing proportion of coal in its primary energy mix until the year 2040 (IEA, 2014). To limit the resulting increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, development of a policy strategy on CCS, based on specifications for coal storage sites and the regional energy mix, is strongly required. However, most Asian countries, including Japan, have not yet fulfilled this requirement.
Ingelson et al (2010) focused on the most serious risks associated with CO2 injection and long-term storage, particularly the risk of leakage, which refers to the possibility of CO2 escaping from the storage site. Several analyses have acknowledged that these potential risks cannot be managed without clarification of responsibility for maintenance, monitoring, and leakage prevention in CO2 storage at the closure of the site as well as post-closure (Finch et al 2009).
This paper examines the legal and socio-economic aspects of CCS technologies through a comparative study of the current law and policies of Japan and countries that have developed and an analysis of economic models of CCS lifecycle. This paper also proposes a comprehensive policy strategy for commercial CCS deployment, while addressing issues associated with ensuring effective long-term stewardship of CO2 storage sites, including those related to the protection of public health, safety, and the environment. Finally, the paper discusses the pathways to deep decarbonization using large-scale CCS based on the proposed policy strategy.
Biography:
Qian has presented an approach, decomposing the atmospheric variable into temporal climatology and anomaly. The approach helps forecasters understand weather, climate, and general circulation as well as their anomalies. It confirms that the Arctic cell is directly linked to the warming in the high latitudes. Qian has proposed the anomaly-based synoptic chart that can locate weather extremes. Qian has developed an optimal-level dynamical model which can predict most unusual tropical cyclone tracks. Qian has defined the global monsoon domain as the regions where the difference of two pentad mean precipitation rates exceeds 4 mm day−1, which is also influenced by the low-level prevailing wind reversal associated with the cross-equatorial flow.
Abstract:
The study of general circulation has a long history since Halley (1686) and Hadley (1735) to Maury (1855) and Ferrel (1856), from the single-cell model, the two-cell model, and to the three-cell model. In 1921, V. Bjerknes proposed the four-cell model based on his theoretical speculation. Using four sets of reanalysis products and a climate model simulation, the four-cell model has been confirmed through zonally averaged calculation from basic atmospheric variables. The fourth cell located over the two polar areas is respectively named as the Arctic cell in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Antarctic cell in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The Hadley, Ferrel, Polar, and Arctic/Antarctic cells exist in each hemisphere but their intensities vary from day to day and from month to month.
In the NH, the strengthening and broadening trends of the Hadley cell have been revealed, while the existence of the Arctic cell has also been confirmed in previous studies (Qian et al., 2015a,b; 2016a,b). Qian et al. (2016b) and Qian (2017) extended previous strengthening trend analysis of the Hadley cell to the Polar and Arctic cells in the NH and explored their climate influences. The results showed that the Polar cell experienced an abrupt change from a slow to a rapid strengthening trend in 1989, while the Arctic cell showed an insignificant strengthening trend and a significant weakening trend successively. The strengthening subsidence associated with the Polar and Arctic cells can partly explain the warming surface air temperature (SAT) and declining sea ice concentration (SIC) in the NH, through the increasing tropospheric height and temperature trends.
Glen Gawarkiewicz
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA
Title: Climate change in the coastal Ocean: Trends and processes from the middle Atlantic bight of the U.S.
Biography:
Glen Gawarkiewicz is a Senior Scientist in the Physical Oceanography Department of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. He is a sea-going oceanographer whose research interests include shelfbreak exchange processes, coastal ocean circulation, coastal ocean observatories, and inter-disciplinary science in the coastal ocean.
Abstract:
Statement of the Problem: There has been increasing attention on changes in the circulation and ecosystems of continental shelves in various regions of the world. A region that is changing rapidly is the Middle Atlantic Bight of the northeastern U.S., where a recent warming trend has been identified and there have been significant impacts on the seasonal movements and spatial distributions of fish. An important question is what types of forcing result in warming events, specifically whether atmospheric forcing via Jet Stream motions or offshore forcing via Gulf Stream interactions have primarily caused large temperature anomalies.
Methodology and Theoretical Orientation: Recent observations have been used to determine the warming trend of temperature over the continental shelf off New Jersey over a 37 year period. The extreme warming event in 2012 has been investigated using both observations and numerical models of ocean circulation. Data collected by fishermen in early 2017 show Gulf Stream water extending across much of the continental shelf.
Findings: Average shelf-wide temperature has been increasing off New Jersey in recent decades although with significant interannual variability. The more recent trend from 2003-2013 is much larger than the trend from 1977-2013. It appears that warm water is encroaching more frequently from the edge of the continental shelf, indicating more influence from Gulf Stream forcing. The extreme warming in 2012 resulted from a northward shift in the position of the Jet Stream that reduced cooling of the coastal ocean by 50 per cent during the winter. During early 2017, warm Gulf Stream water extended across much of the continental shelf south of New England resulting in warm anomalies of 5-6 Deg. C.
Conclusions and Significance: Recent warming has had significant impacts on the continental shelf ecosystem and commercial fisheries.
More observations are needed to establish causes and processes affected by this warming. Coastal ocean observatories will be helpful in this regard.
Ranhao Sun
Chinese Academy of Sciences
China
Title: Understanding the variability of urban heat islands for climate change adaptation
Biography:
Ranhao Sun is a Ph.D. from University of Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2008. He is an associate professor at the Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, ChineseAcademy of Sciences (RCEES – CAS). His main areas of expertise are landscape ecology,physical geography, and geographic information systems. His current studiesfocus on two fields: (1) urban heat island effects in large cities related to landscapedesign and planning; and (2) ecosystemservices evaluation and modeling using GISand remote sensing technologies.
Abstract:
Climate change adaptation in urban areas is among the biggest challenges humanity faces due to the combined effects of urban heating and global warming. The variability of urban heat islands (UHI) is known to influence the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies, but current understanding of urban climate variability is still limited. Here, we quantify the diurnal and seasonal variabilities of surface UHIs in 245 Chinese cities that vary in population and physical size, and examine their relationships with the underlying drivers. We found that local background climate, urban green spaces, and local anthropogenic heat emissions can explain 32-39%, 3-11%, and 4-12% of the diurnal UHI variability, respectively. These three variables also account for 17%, 7%, and 22% of the summer-winter UHI variability during the daytime, and 29%, 4%, and 26% during the nighttime, respectively. Our research suggests that the improvement of urban climate-change adaptation necessitates the local “climate-smart” strategies, reduction in local anthropogenic heat emissions, and rational use of green planning for sustainable urban development.
Kashmira Pawaskar
Tata Institute of Social Sciences, India
Title: Decomposition analysis of factors influencing emissions and their impact on mitigation targets
Biography:
Kashmira Pawaskar is a post graduate student in Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies, School of Habitat Studies at Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, India. She is interested in the energy policy analysis and climate change research. She has completed her basic education in mass communication and she is also interested in further researching on climate communication in international and national negotiations.
Abstract:
The historic Paris agreement was based on the strong commitment of 196 member countries to mitigate emissions. These human induced emissions are on rise due various reasons including electricity production, transportation, manufacturing and production of goods and services, and agriculture. Hence, a deeper understanding of the driving forces pertaining to energy related CO2 emissions is very important in formulating future mitigation policies. This paper aims at identifying these factors that have influenced the changes in the level of CO2 emissions over last two decades. By means of decomposition method, the observed changes are analysed in terms of four factors affecting the emissions - energy intensity, structural changes, emission intensity and economic activities. One of the popular Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA) method Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) is used, to decompose factors of
emission, due to its theoretical foundation, adaptability, ease of use and results interpretation with zero residual. The paper aims to study major economic sectors of four highest CO2 emitting developed countries (U.S, Japan, Germany and Canada) as well as four highest CO2 emitting developing countries (China, India, Russia, South Korea). The analysis is to be based on empirical data ranging from 1990-2014, which will decompose emissions based on sectoral (industry, services and agriculture) trends. It will further develop an understanding of how these changes in drivers, influencing emissions, will impact the mitigation targets committed by countries in their respective INDCs.
Pramod Singh
Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra
Title: Impact of climate change on milk economy in India
Biography:
Pramod K. Singh is a professor at the Institute of Rural Management Anand. Dr Singh has over 18 years of teaching and research experiences in the areas of governance and management of natural resources, climate change adaptation, vulnerability and resilience, disaster risk reduction, livelihoods, environment and development planning, and geoinformatics for development. He has completed over 30 research studies funded by central as well as state government departments and international development organizations. He teaches courses like rural livelihood systems, natural resources and sustainability to postgraduate and doctoral students.
Abstract:
India has highest population of livestock and dependency of a large segment of Indian population for their livelihood security on livestock is very high. Climate change and variability is likely to affect livestock health, livestock feed and livestock productivity very severely.
This paper tries to project the future scenarios of temperature and heat waves using five climate models (ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) for the period of 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s) across different RCPs. It tries to study the impacts of climate change and variability on general health and productivity of milk bearing animals. Based on Agro-ecological Zonation (Fischer, 2012)methodology, it also tries to project availability of feed during 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s) for livestock.
Our findings reveal that there is likely to have decrease in milk production as a result of adverse health impacts due to rising temperature or heat waves incidences, decrease in milk productivity and shortage of animal feed. The paper suggests appropriate adaptation and mitigation pathways on various SSPs to sustain high level of milk production in India.
Moses B. Adewole
Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria
Title: Zero-tillage andbiochar use for soil carbon sequestration, dry matter yield and nutrient uptake of maize
Biography:
Moses B. Adewole is a Senior Research Fellow in the Institute of Ecology and Environmental Studies, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Nigeria. He holds B.Sc. (Chemistry), Ife (1985); M.Sc. (Agronomy) Soil Science, Ibadan (1995) and PhD (Agronomy) Soil Science, Ibadan (2006). He was a Deputy Director (Crops), Oyo State World Bank sponsored - Agricultural Development Project (OYSADEP) before joining the OAU, Ile-Ife as an academic member of staff in 2007. He presently teaches Advanced Soil Ecology, Soil Resources Management and Conservation, Municipal and Industrial Waste Management, and Farming System and the Environment at the postgraduate level. His main research is in the area of soil health and crop quality improvement using environment-friendly biotechnology approach. Dr. Adewole is a member of many professional bodies such as Farm Management Association of Nigeria, Biochar Initiative of Nigeria and Nigerian Organic Agriculture Network. He enjoys going on field trips and multidisplinary research.
Abstract:
A field experiment was conducted in 2014 and 2015 on an Ultisol soil type of forest ecology in Southwestern Nigeria to determine the effects of zero-tillage and biochar use on the rate of soil carbon sequestration and soil fertility maintenance when maize was the test crop. This was with a view to optimising strategies for enhancing carbon sequestration in the soil. The experimental field was prepared once and plots were laid in a randomised complete block design with three treatments, each replicated four times. Seeds of maize variety, ART/98/SW6 were sown and the treatments [maize stover and maize cob biochars], each at 10 t ha-1 were applied at sowing. Zero biochar application served as control. Manual weeding of the plots was carried out at 2, 5 and 7 weeds after sowing (WAS), and the experiment terminated at 12 WAS. Maize stoverbiochar had higher potential for carbon sequestration with 12.45 t C ha-1 yr-1 as about 79% of the initial organic cabon remained in the soil after the two consecutive maize cropping. Enhanced dry matter yield and nutrient uptake of maize were obtained with zero-tillage agrosystem and biochars as soil amendments in a sandy loam soil of Nigerian forest ecology.
Biography:
Liming Zhou has research interests in land-atmosphere/climate interaction, land-surface remote sensing, remote sensing of vegetation dynamics,land-surface modeling, climate modeling, andapplications of various remote sensed products in weather, climate, and environmental sciences.During the past decade, he has used satellite data, observations and climate models to understand physical processes/mechanisms and interactions of land-human-climate systems, and to improve model capability to predict climate change and assess its impacts and consequence on our climate and environment. Land surface processes related to vegetation dynamics, deforestation, afforestation, urbanization, desertification, and renewable wind energy are his emphases.
Abstract:
Previous research found that the warming rateobserved for the period 1979–2012 increases dramaticallywith decreasing vegetation greenness over land in mid- and low- latitudes, with the strongest warming rate seen overthe driest ecoregions such as the Sahara desert and the ArabianPeninsula, suggesting warming amplification over deserts.Here I analyze the observed and projected surface temperature anomalies over land between50°S-50°N for the period 1950–2099 by large-scale ecoregion and find strongest warming consistentlyand persistently seen over the driest ecoregions duringvarious 30-year periods, pointing to desert amplification in a warming climate (similar to polar amplification). This amplificationenhances linearly with the global mean greenhouse gases (GHGs) radiative forcing. Possible mechanisms for this amplification are explored by analyzing changes in various variablesrelated to atmospheric profiles, surface radiative forcing, landsurface properties, and surface energy and radiation budget. My results show that desert amplification islikely attributable mostly to a stronger GHGs-enhanced downward longwave radiation forcing reaching the surfaceover drier ecoregions as a consequence of a warmer and thus moister atmosphere in response toincreasing GHGs. These results indicate that desert amplification may represent a fundamental patternof global warming associated with water vapor feedbacks over land in low- and mid- latitudes wheresurface warming rates depend inversely on ecosystem dryness. It is possible that desert amplificationmight involve two types of water vapor feedbacks that maximize respectively in the tropical uppertroposphere and near the surface over deserts, with both being very dry and thus extremely sensitive tochanges of water vapor.
Tino Redemann
Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg, Germany
Title: Mathematical model to calculate the sensitivity of anthropogenic CO2on global Earth temperature
Biography:
The authors belong to the Institute of Fluid Dynamics and Thermodynamics at the Otto-von-Guericke-University Magdeburg and to the Institute for Energy Process Engineering and Fuel Technology at the Clausthal University of Technology in Germany and conduct research in the field of heat radiation in industrial kilns.
Abstract:
There are countless climate models, which predict the impacts of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the global earth temperature. Because of the large number of influencing parameters used, these models are mostly very complex, so the influences of the particular parameter can hardly be comprehended, i.e. the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
Due to this fact, the greenhouse effect is described with simple analytical resolvable equations. Therefore a simplified uniform surface temperature of the earth is assumed. The radiation exchange between earth, clouds, space and the layers of gas between is calculated with these equations, which were developed for the analogue radiation exchange in industrial furnaces. With this model, the temperature profile in the atmosphere can be described relatively well.
The CO2 in the atmosphere acts as a radiation shield, which increases the heat resistance against the outgoing long-wave radiation from the earth surface. The known average temperature of the Earth was used to validate this model.
When the CO2 in the atmosphere is doubled, the absorptivity increases slightly.Because of this increase, the temperature of the earth surface has to increase about 0.4 Kelvin to compensate the increased heat transport resistance.
Since 1860,the Earth's temperaturehas already risendue toanthropogenic CO2emissionsby0.2Kelvin. The measuredincrease of about0.9Kelvinis attributed toside effectscausedby theCO2 related temperature increase. Therefore, atemperatureincrease of more than 0.4 Kelvinis predictedfor the future.Without CO2, the temperature of the Earth would be 4 K colder.
Mitsuru Osaki
Hokkaido University, Japan
Title: CDEFs securities in high carbon reservoir ecosystem of tropical peatland
Biography:
Mitsuru Osaki is Professor of Research Faculty of Agriculture, Hokkaido University and Professor of Graduate School of Agriculture, Hokkaido University from 2006. He was trained as a plant physiologist and soil scientist, and obtained his doctorate degree in from the Faculty of Agriculture, Hokkaido University, in Japan in 1981. He worked as Associate Scientist in Maize Unit of CIMMYT in Mexico from 1982 to 1984. Until 2006, he has been working with the Graduate School of Agriculture, Hokkaido University in Japan, to implement a research and teaching on Rhizosphere Management. He also has been carried out many collaborative researches and teaching projects on tropical land management and rehabilitation of tropical forest. Also he is a Project Leader of JST-JICA Project on "Wild Fire and Carbon Management in Peat-Forest in Indonesia" from 2008 to 2014. He is also interested in sustainability viewed from soil fertility, food production, bio-energy, land management and SATOYAMA.
Abstract:
The CDEFs security is new concept on estimation and management of High Carbon Reservoir Ecosystem, especially in Tropical Peatland such as;Climate Change security, (bio)Diversity security,Energy security,Food/feed security, and social security.Peatland is typical case, which relate closely with the CDEFs security, because peatland sustains high water table and high carbon reservoir, and high biomass productivity, contributing mitigation and adaptation to Climate Change security, high Bio-Diversity, high Biomass Energy production, high Food/feed production, and social security throughout CDEF security. In past, unfortunately tropical peatland management and development have been misleading against high CDEFs security of tropical peatland.
Lets remind again what is “The Tropical Peatland Principle” (1,2). Tropical Peatland is typical case of wetland, then water is most functional element among other wetland. Especially, high water table, not moisture is most rational principal for peat formation and peat conservation.Because oxygen permeability is a key factor of peat decomposition.Even if peat keep wet condition, O2 permeate until water table of peatland, then peat is decomposed quickly (3).
Internationally, water is most important resource for terrestrial ecosystem. Global Risks 2015 reported "Top 10 risks in terms of global Impact" (4), in which Water crises is ranked as number one. Thus, it is better to change basically national policy on tropical peatland management used as wet-peatland, not dry-peatland. Wet-peatland function as large water reservoir, which is great benefit, rolling as natural capital such as water dam. Natural capital of Wet-peatland as Water Reservoir is inestimable, because especially Wet-peatland securer to supply water in dry season even if El Niño year, which contribute to the national food/feed security, and at same time, to reduction of CO2 emission. In other words, Wet-peatland contribute globally to both mitigation (reduction of CO2 emission) and adaptation (water supply for plant growth in severe dry) against climate change.
Biography:
Xia Jia has her expertise in evaluation in the effect of global changes combined with heavy metal-polluted soils on ecosystems. Her research has been in the general field of interrelationships between plants and rhizosphere microenvironment under global changes combined with heavy metals. The long-term objective of her study is to have a better understanding of the response mechanism of ecosystems to the combination of global change and metal-contaminated soils, and eventually apply the knowledge gained in her study to assess the environmental risk of global change combined with heavy metal pollution to ecosystems.
Abstract:
Elevated atmospheric CO2 and contamination of soil with heavy metals co-occur in natural ecosystems and have important effects on the soil microenvironment by influencing plant physiology. We examined the response of the black locust rhizosphere microenvironment to elevated atmospheric CO2 (700 ppm) in combination with Cd- and Pb-contamination. Elevated CO2 led to an increase in organic compounds (total soluble sugars, soluble phenolic acids, free acids, and organic acids), microbial populations, biomass, and activity, and enzyme activity (urease, dehydrogenase, invertase, and β-glucosidase) and changes in microbial community in rhizosphere soils under Cd, Pb, or Cd + Pb treatments relative to ambient CO2. Elevated CO2 also corresponded to an increase in chlorophyll a and b in leaves, total sugars, and starch in leaves and stems of black locust seedlings under Cd and Pb stress relative to either metal alone, which indicated that changes in the rhizosphere microenvironment was affected by the response of seedlings physiology. The pH was lower under elevated CO2 + Pb + Cd than under metals, which led to changes in Cd and Pb fractionation between soils and plants. Therefore, the removal of Cd and Pb in rhizosphere soils and the uptake of Cd and Pb by plants increased under elevated CO2. The increased removal of Cd and Pb in soils and the high rate of Cd and Pb uptake under elevated CO2 indicated that black locust seedlings can be used for phytoremediation of contaminated soils under global change scenarios. Furthermore, our study also suggests that elevated CO2 alters the distribution of heavy metals in soil and plants and stimulates the uptake of plants, thereby probably affecting food quality and safety. Overall, elevated CO2 benefits the soil microenvironment in the rhizosphere of black locust seedlings in Cd- and Pb-contaminated soils.
Nils-Axel Mörner
Stockholm University, Sweden
Title: Our Oceans – Our future: New evidence-based sea level records from the Fiji islands indicating no rise in Ocean level
Biography:
Nils-Axel (”Niklas”) Mörner took his Ph.D. in Quaternary Geology at Stockholm University in 1969. Head of the institute of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics (P&G) at Stockholm University from 1991 up to his retirement in 2005. He has written many hundreds of research papers and several books. He has presented more than 500 papers at major international conferences. He has undertaking field studies in 59 different countries. The P&G institute became an international center for global sea level change, paleoclimate, paleoseismics, neotectonics, paleomagnetism, Earth rotation, planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction, etc. Among his books; Earth Rheology, Isostasy and Eustasy (Wiley, 1984), Climate Change on a Yearly to Millennial Basis (Reidel, 1984), Paleoseismicity of Sweden: a novel paradigm (P&G-print, 2003), The Greatest Lie Ever Told (P&G-print, 2007), The Tsunami Threat: Research & Technology (InTech, 2011), Geochronology: Methods and Case Studies (InTech, 2014), Planetary Influence on the Sun and the Earth, and a Modern Book-Burning (Nova, 2015).
Abstract:
The sea level changes in the Fiji Islands have been the focus at the UN conference on Our Oceans, Our Future on June 5-9, hosted by the governments of Sweden and Fiji, and will surely be in the focus again at the COP23 conference in Bonn, November 6-17, hosted by the Government of Fiji. This focus, however, was quite miss-directed,depending on models and preconceived ideas, and ignoring observational facts. Anticipating that this would be the case, we undertook a special sea level investigation in the Fiji Islands themselves, bringing forward evidenced-based observational facts on past and present sea level changes [1].
As an example of what we mean by evidence-based observa-tional facts, we refer to our paper on the sea level changes in the Indian Ocean [2], where we combine multiple observational facts like coastal morphology, stratigraphy, ecology, coastal dynamics, history, archaeology and radiocarbon dating.
We have discussed the tide-gauge stations on the island of Vitu Levi [3] and coastal erosion on the Yasawa Islands [4]. Now we summarize our findings with respect to sea level changes [1, 5] as illustrated in Figure 1.
The shores of the Yasawa Islands are characterized by a strong coastal stability [1, 4, 5]. The HTL is, on rocky coasts, marked by rock-cut platforms and under-cut notches and sea caves, indicative of multi-decadal sea level stability. At several places we observed the occurrence of coral “mini-atolls” with a living coral rim at 40-60 cm below LTL (Fig. 1).
The conclusion is that the regional eustatic ocean level has remained stable in the Fiji region for, at least, several decades, and that there do not exist any observational signs of any present on-going sea level rise. Anyone claiming the opposite does this for reasons other than evidence-based scientific observations.
Diana Guzmán Barraza
Guzmán-Barraza Energy Engineering & Consulting, Mexico
Title: Satellite-derived annual estimations of PM2.5 (air quality)
Biography:
Guzmán-Barraza is a Sustainability and Climate Change Consultant and former Field Engineer in the Oil & Gas industry, whose work has had a positive impact on the urban development of Monterrey. She recently represented civil society on climate change topics in the United Nations in NYC, and in multiple international high-level events. She is also a collaborative partner of the UNFCCC, and of the Civil Society Partner Constituent Group of the United Nations General Assembly of Habitat III. Guzmán-Barraza has received certified training on Climate Change topics by former Vice President of the USA Al Gore, NASA, UN Habitat, UNICEF, UNITAR, WHO, and UNCC:Learn, and is also among the world´s first generation certified by the World Bank as a regional-scale Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories Specialist. She holds a MSC degree in Sustainable Energy Engineering from the UK, a BSc degree in Industrial & Systems Engineering from LA most prominent higher institution -Tec de Monterrey-, and has been the recipient of multiple awards, scholarships, and commemorations.
Abstract:
PM2.5 is particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns of diameter, which is 20-28 times smaller than that of a human hair. Prolonged exposure to concentration levels above 10 Mg/m3 of this type of air pollution increases the risks of cardiovascular diseases by 95%, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). It also contributes to global warming, and as such, to climate change, which poses the largest threat to humanity in history.
In the spirit of collaborating with the international community to solve the climate crisis, this research was developed using my home country, Mexico, as a case study. It can be replicated for every country in the world. Figure 1 shows the annual mean estimates for PM2.5 concentration levels in the country, highlighting darker colors for areas with higher concentrations of this type of air pollution. Notice that the region around the south east, Mexico City, and Monterrey show alarmingly dangerous high levels of concentration, which pose a huge threat to the health of locals. These regions are also were much of the country´s GDP is generated. Major oilfields are located in the southeast, while up north around Monterrey, the region is home to the leading cement, steel, glass, beer, industries, as well as plenty other industrial processes. We must be aware of the sources of greenhouse gas emissions around human settlements, monitor the quality of the air we breathe, and address the urgency of implementing new climate adaptation & mitigation plans around the world. There is an acute relationship between climate change & health, and not taking action comes at a cost far higher than the upfront costs of addressing the needs for clean technologies.
This research supports the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3 (Good Health & Well-Being) & 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) - both of which specifically address air quality using PM2.5 concentration levels as an indicator. It was generated using the skills gained on my recent certified NASA training on creating air quality data sets derived from satellite observations. It is also my first surprise contribution, as a voluntary collaborative partner, to the Monterrey Metropolitan Area Air Quality (OCCAMM) Citizen Observatory.
Carolina Martinez
Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Chile
Title: Geomorphological changes and Tsunami Risk in a Coastal WetlandPost-Earthquake in South-Central Chile
Biography:
Carolina Martínez (Ph.D. - Geography) is a Professor at the Geography Institute at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (PUC). Her area of research is geomorphology and costal environment dynamics, coastal and natural risk management. Her recent works are focused on analysing factors of change on tectonic coasts that are recently affected by natural disturbances such as earthquakes, tsunamis and swells. She also studies the socio-territorial effects on costal locations.
Abstract:
In the central Chilean region (33°-38.6°S), the Mw=8.8 earthquake of February 27, 2010, and the associated tsunami generated widespread devastation along 600 km of shoreline. This event caused strong morphologic, environmental and social changes. Coastal uplift larger than 2 m on the west coast of Arauco Peninsula (37°-37.7°S) produced the outcropping of shore platforms, changes in the intertidal zone, and the drying of wetlands. One of the most affected coastal wetlands was the Tubul-Raqui where important geomorphological, ecological and socio-territorial changes were generated. Here, the uplift magnitude was 1.4m. In the 1960s, a group of fishermen and algae (gracilariachilensis) gatherers was organized, forming a settlement of about 2000 residents.This was severely affected by the tsunami of February 27, 2010. In this context, the inundation risk due to tsunami in Tubul,Arauco Gulf was evaluated (Image). The risk of tsunami inundation is analyzed for an extreme event in the town of Tubul (37 ° S), Bio-Bio Region. Three scenarios were identified for risk assessment, in all of which numerical simulation was applied. Two of the three scenarios were local tsunamis, the events of 1835 and 2010, and the event of 1877 was included to determine the effects of a far field tsunami. The tsunami of 1835 was determined as an extreme event, which gave inundation heights of 10m and run-up of 10m. Vulnerability was analyzed from physical, socioeconomic and educational points of views. Two levels of vulnerability were defined, namely medium and high. These levels were selected based on the poor housing materials, the vulnerable socioeconomic profiles of the population, low educational levels and the population´s reactions to these tsunami events. The results show that natural risk is obtained at the high level in the whole town. These results were also compared with the current Reconstruction Plan.
Wei Pu
Lanzhou University, China
Title: Properties of black carbon and other insoluble light-absorbing particles in seasonal snow of northwest China
Biography:
Wei Puis a PhD candidate in climatology. He focused on studying insoluble light-absorbing particles (ILAPs) in snow and its effect on snow albedo and subsequent climate change. He has participated in several field campaigns to collect snow in China and has rich experiences in processing snow samples and analyzingILAPs content. He also has involved inthe development of a snow albedo model.
Abstract:
Insoluble light-absorbing particles (ILAPs), primarily black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and dust, deposited on snow can reduce snow albedo,which can significantly affect regional and global climate.Hence, understanding ILAPs content in snow is very important for climate prediction. We conducted a large field campaign and collected 284 snow samples at 38 sites in Xinjiang Province and 6 sites in Qinghai Province across northwestern China from January to February 2012. A spectrophotometer combined with chemical analysis was used to measure ILAPs and chemical components in seasonal snow. The results indicate that the cleanest snow was found in northeastern Xinjiang along the border of China, and it presented an estimated black carbon (