Litao Liu
Chinese Academy of Science, China
Title: The decoupling of in-use cement stocks during urbanization in China: spatial perspectives
Biography
Biography: Litao Liu
Abstract
Statement of the Problem: China is the largest cement producer and consumer accounting for almost about 60% worlds cement production and consumption. China’s unprecedented change offers a unique chance for revealing the relationship between urbanization and the in-use cement stocks. Researchers have observed that Inverted-U shaped nexus between cement consumption and urbanization, as well as GDP per capita; rapid urbanization is creating the conditions for widespread infrastructure and in-use cement stocks accumulation, but shows an uneven distribution. However, these regional heterogeneities from spatial perspective have not been previously studied. The purpose of this study is to show the spatio-temporal pattern of the in-use cement stocks and reveal underling socioeconomic drivers during 1950-2012. Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: Dynamic material flow analysis and ArcGIS software were utilized for depicting the spatio-temporal pattern of cement flow and in-use stocks. We analyze China’s in-use stocks from both producer and consumer perspectives based on multilevel data including factory-level field investigating data, industry level data, provincial and national level data. Findings: A huge discrepancy in in-use cement stock accumulation remains among different regions of China. Urbanization rate, population, GDP per capita, consumption behavior and building lifetime are the major determinants of cement in-use stock. Total production capacity, energy consumption and emissions will decline dramatically and mitigation policies will change remarkably under in-use cement stock saturation situation. Conclusion & Significance: The regional heterogeneities of in-use cement stock accumulation over the coming decades will be critical for the cement industry to reach deeper energy saving and emission cuts. Recommendations are made for policy-maker to design comprehensive policies that would help coordinating cement in-use stock accumulation and urbanization in different region of China.