Heqin Cheng
Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality, China
Title: Adaptation to sea level rise from Shanghai city, China
Biography
Biography: Heqin Cheng
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) is a major of climate change. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened by SLR to various degrees. Shanghai is one of those cities. In recent years, intensifying waterlogging, salt intrusion, wetland loss, and ecosystem degradation in the city have generated the pressing need to create an urban form that is suited to both current and future climates incorporating SLR. However, adaptation planning uptake is slow. This is particularly unfortunate because patterns of urban form interact with mean sea level rise (MSLR) in ways that reduce or intensify its impact. There are currently two main barriers that are significant in arresting the implementation of adaptation planning with reference to the MSLR projections composed of geomorphologic MSLR projections and eustatic MSLR projections from global climate warming, and making a comprehensive risk assessment of MSLR projections. The purpose of this study is to mapping MSLR projections and their risk assessment approaches, and then the adaptation actions in the city. Grey model approaches with linear fitting and the least squares measured tidal levels during1921-2000 in Wusong Vertical Elevation Datum at 5 tidal gauge stations were utilized to estimate the eustatic MSLR (ESLR) projection from climate warming in the area. Hierarchical partitioning analysis of variability in 2000-2009 is used to analyze urban land subsidence (ULS) projection. Digitized historical nautical charts during 1997-2013 were utilized to map the magnitude of bed erosion, e.g. regional sea level fall (RSLF) projection by anthropogenic geomorphologic changes. MIKE 21 was used to simulate the regional SLR (RSLR) caused by the land reclamation. The total decadal SLR (DSLR) is supposed to consist of ESLR, ULS, RSLF, RSLR and tectonic subsidence. Vladimir algorithm was used to calculate the variation in the tidal datum. ATP was used to make the risk assessment involved in the timing and magnitude of MSLR projections on a shortage of fresh water supply in Shanghai city. Four design frequencies of highest tidal level were assessed. The DSLR is 10-16 cm during 2011-2030. The standard of existing seawall needs to be raised. New fresh water resource needs to be sought.