Marian Mierla
Danube Delta National Institute for Research and Development, Romania
Title: Potential changes in plant species place distribution induced by climatic pattern changes
Biography
Biography: Marian Mierla
Abstract
The work is presenting results of a GIS analyses to derivate habitat requirements of specific species that were taken into account and to predict changes in their distribution as a function of temperature and precipitation dynamics. The studied area is the Eastern side of Romania that includes Dobrogea and Moldova regions in order to have an extended area on the North-South direction. On this extended area the values of the chosen climatic variables may be different from North to South. The data used in this paper consists in gridded data for mean temperature (MeanT), maximum temperature (MaxT) and minimum temperature (MinT) and also annual precipitation amount. The grid is constructed at 0.1 degree regular latitude-longitude for the period 1961-2013 used in the analyses. The results show distribution graphs of specific plant species depending by their characteristics for each cell of the grid in the maps of characteristics temperatures and precipitation for each cell in studied area and average temperatures preferred by selected plant species. Combining data on “evolution” of the average (mean, maximum and minimum) temperatures and also with data regarding the average temperature preference of each species taken into account from the same studied area it may suggest that ascending trend of temperatures amplitude may exceed species tolerance. Thus the positive (increasing) trend will be in that way that can result in a threat on some species in the future. In a normal and gradually change (in natural conditions) of the climatic parameters the adapted species will disappear from a place and appear to another. This will be seen as a movement of their habitats. This could be a way of changes in a climatic changing world.
