Climate Change

Biography

Biography: Jan-Erik Solheim

Abstract

The first Oil boom in Europe was related to whaling in Arctic waters from the 16^th century. From ship logs, expeditions, and later airplanes and satellites, a long series (1579-2016) of estimated positions of the summer ice-edge between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land has been determined. In the period 1579-2012 the position of the summer ice-edge variedbetween 75.5 and 82.5 N. Between 1624 and 1671 is the ice-edge far south (except for 1664 when it is at 82N). The period 1640 -1720 corresponds low solar activity (Maunder Minimum) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) – a very cold period in Europe.  From 1720 to 1785 the ice edge is far north and whaling is intensive north of Svalbard. Between 1780 and 1785 the ice edge moves 500 km south to about 76N. One reason may be the volcanic eruptions of Krakatau and Laki in 1783, which led to a cold period in Europe, but also the solar activity Dalton minimum 1790-1820.  During the 19^th century the ice-edge is far south, except 1844-64. From 1910 it again moves north to a maximum in the 1930ies, and a new maximum further north after 1990. Around 2000 whales are again observed north of Svalbard in the winter.

We have analyzed the ice-edge series to search for stationary periods, which may be forced by exterior sources, and we find that periods of the Moon and the Sun are present. In particular, we find indications for modulations related to the large planets Saturn, Uranus and Neptune.Stationary periods give the possibility of prediction for future evolution of the Arctic ice.